A Best Picture Oscar Prediction (Sort Of)

I cannot believe the Academy Awards are here. Who even hosted last year? This year, Seth MacFarlane will either knock it out of the park or he will go extremely lowbrow. I’m going to go ahead and predict he won’t exactly fail as a host, but it will be a rough night. I’m just glad he’s a fan of old school musicals; it’s the only advantage he has. And let’s be honest, this year’s Best Picture nominees are all over the place, with almost half of the field focusing on a couple of dark times in American History. Out of the 9 nominated films, I only saw four; oh there will come a day when I will see all of them, but 9 is a steep number to spend all my money on. Here are the ones I did see…

Lincoln

YouTube.com

YouTube.com

Now if you know Oscar voters (I don’t know any personally) they love a sprawling, epic period piece. Don’t worry, we’ll get to Les Miserables momentarily and the voters love true stories, even if they are so very slightly inaccurate. What’s not inaccurate about Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln is Daniel Day-Lewis’ performance as Honest Abe. And I would say you’ll see Day-Lewis walk away with his third Best Actor award. The only other possibly guaranteed winner is Best Supporting Actor nominee and Grumpy Cat doppleganger Tommy Lee Jones, who won in the same category in for The Fugitive. Nope, Sally Field won’t win Best Supporting Actress and honestly, she was just so-so as Mary Todd Lincoln. Will Lincoln win Best Picture? I would say the odds are very good, like let’s go with it has a 75 percent chance of winning.

Les Miserables

YouTube.com

YouTube.com

Here’s another sprawling, yet musical, story for older Oscar voters to salivate over. It’s the runner-up to Lincoln in nominations with 8, but it may not see but maybe one acting winner, Anne Hathaway. I mean how can you not look at her “I Dreamed a Dream” performance and not fall apart? Very cliche’ and very heartwarming, but she will mostly likely win Best Supporting Actress. Hugh Jackman would win Best Actor if Day-Lewis wasn’t in the mix; will we see a tie? Nah. It may win for many non-acting awards, but Best Picture? Not this time. Thank God for the separate Musical or Comedy and Drama Best Picture awards at the Golden Globes right? I loved it, but at the same time, the last hour was way too long. Sadly, most Best Picture nominees clock in at 2 and half hours. Here? 2 hours and 45 minutes. GAH! It was so long, I’ve forgotten most of it. But I won’t soon forget Russell Crowe’s singing voice.

Silver Linings Playbook

YouTube.com

YouTube.com

I loved Silver Linings Playbook, and it’s the first of two Best Pictures that can upset Lincoln. Plus, it has an actor nominated in all major categories, however, I wasn’t impressed with Robert DeNiro or Jacki Weaver (both Supporting nominees as Pat’s (Bradley Cooper) parents. Were they good? Sure, but really, both of them? This film will probably catch the fancy of younger Oscar voters; it’s a love story, it’s an honest yet non-scathing look at mental illness, and it has Best Actor nominee Cooper and Best Actress nominee Jennifer Lawrence. Lawrence, who was nominated two years ago for Winter’s Bone is tied with Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty (didn’t see it) for the win, and I can’t really make a prediction without seeing Chastain, but since I only saw Lawrence, I’ll give her the Oscar. Now as far as Best Picture? Maybe. It’s modern, it’s gritty, and David O. Russell nabbed a Best Director nod. However, if one film can topple the Lincoln monster…

Argo

YouTube.com

YouTube.com

I just watched Argo last night, and I thought it was fantastic. Bonus, it’s only 2 hours long! Another Oscar voter hook is true and political, but not too political. We all know the story of the 50 American hostages who were captured in Iran in 1979; those 50 were held for 444 days and they were released the moment President Ronald Reagan was sworn in. I didn’t know of this incredible story to rescue six US Embassy employees who were not taken hostage, and how a CIA operative orchestrated a fake movie (with the fugitives as the crew) to rescue them. The Canadian Embassy played a much bigger part in the rescue than was shown in the film, which served as a bit of controversy and gained Argo that “historically inaccurate” moniker. Even former President Jimmy Carter, who was held hostage in his own right as he could never secure release for the 50 left behind, went on record to point out the inaccuracies. Ironically, you hear Carter’s voice as the prologue rolls at the end of the film, which is a great punctuation mark. So Ben Affleck may not be nominated for Best Director, but Argo could pull off the ultimate upset by winning Best Picture.

Out of the remaining Best Picture nominees, Zero Dark Thirty has the buzz to possibly steal some awards and as usual, Quentin Tarantino’s only win for Django Unchained will be his Original Screenplay. And Beasts of the Southern Wild‘s Quvenzhané Wallis may be cute, but I doubt she can win Best Actress. Nevertheless, who knows? All the odds makers will really be kicking themselves if the 9-year-old pulls off an upset.

Happy watching!
 

 

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What Was The Last Week Of August

I scribbled down a list yesterday of at least six subjects I wanted to touch on and I think I’m pleased. These won’t necessarily be in chronological order, but it’s all stuff that was talked about. Obviously, Clint Eastwood’s RNC “taking to an invisible Obama” was the most-talked about.

mashable.com

I’m still not sure what exactly went on. Was there a teleprompter? Who the hell thought of this? And did Eastwood’s imaginary scalding of the President hurt Mitt Romney’s chances at the White House? Honestly, I don’t think any faux pas at this point will help Romney; it just depends on what type of voter you are. Are you totally absorbed with every word the media spews on the election? or are you going to go on instinct? You have time and believe me, there will be missteps by both candidates to scrutinize. All I know is, Eastwood’s antics will be mocked at this week’s DNC. And scene!

While Vice Presidential candidate and Matthew Morrison doppleganger spoke to the delegates Wednesday night, no one was watching, they were watching this:

I was fully expecting Momma June to get up and ask “How YOU doin’?” It didn’t happen, but we were treated to June’s “forklift foot” and even though it was one of the most horrifying things I’ve ever seen (seriously, does she ever WASH her feet?) the toe looked like many I’ve seen on my Dad’s side of the family. Not impressed. Alas, I was watching Honey Boo Boo instead of Paul Ryan and so were millions of other Americans. Now, the conventions are usually lame, until the nominee speaks, and even though I bored to tears by Romney, it’s sad when a very important RNC is overshadowed by Alana and her fart face. Speaking of fart faces, here’s an unfortunately ill-timed shot of Tan Mom aka Patricia Krencil as she was roasted (bad choice of words) at a gay bar last week, oh and she was thrown out!

That chair was stained with more than tanning oil! (Getty Images/Andrew H. Walker)

On Friday, news broke that longtime American Idol judge Randy Jackson was demoted to a “mentor” role for the upcoming season. I called it! At this point, I really don’t care who will fill out the judges’ table, but I do care if Jimmy Iovine is bumped in favor of the Dawg. Let’s face it, Randy will be as useless as a mentor as he was as a judge. Lord help us!

“Come on dawg! I was in Journey for five minutes! (vh1.com)

On Saturday, Burt Bacharch’s longtime lyric collaborator Hal David passed away at 91. While Bacharach and David wrote many hits for Dionne Warwick, they composed some of the movies’ most famous tunes, including the Oscar-nominated theme song from 1966’s Alfie.

And finally, another YouTube gem was brought to my attention, Nick Pitera’s one-man Les Miserables medley. I was skeptical, but it’s really good, and it’s getting me more fired up for the new movie version coming out December 14th. Witness and sob!

If you scan YouTube, Pitera also has one-man performances of Phantom of the Opera, Newsies!, and a medley of Disney movie tunes. YOU GO GIRL!